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The end of the Cold War created an impression that liberal democracy has become the paramount political system of human society. Between the periods from 1955 to 2007, eighty-six countries attempted 115 transitions to democracy. Despite the growth in quantities of democratic countries worldwide, transitioning democracies continue to reverse to autocracy even at a higher rate than the pre-1990 period. This study identifies only fifteen consolidated “model democracies” among 86 transitioning countries. Indeed, strong democratic systems are rare among new democracies, and a transition to democracy is intrinsically profuse with imperfections. What factors influence a country to consolidate successfully after a country has transcended to a path to democratic transition? Do countries consolidate democracy imperfectly? How does a country consolidate democracy imperfectly?
To answer the aforementioned questions, this study analyzes more than 200 variables from seven major datasets with over 9,800 observations. This project also chronicles all 115 transitions and codes additional variables to classify the characteristics of democratic transitions. In addition to the descriptive statistical methodologies, this research also applies both logit and panel logit models to strengthen the robustness of the investigation. Based on the data analyses, this dissertation makes a set of conclusions to explain the phenomenon of democratic transition and consolidation.
* A transition to democracy is not a revolutionary event. Instead, a transition is a transformed conflict in which both former elites and new stakeholders continue to interact and compete for power. * Economic development, especially peoples’ quality of life, civil violence, civil liberty, the percent of discriminated population, and factionalism are critical conditions to indicate a country’s potential to democratic consolidation. * A transition from one-party state is almost eight more times likely to become a model democracy than a transition from a non one-party state. A country previously ruled by the military regime on average decreases the potential of consolidation by almost one time. The military is likely to remain active in national politics for a substantial period in a country formerly ruled by the military. * A transition may consolidate democracy within one election cycle if critical conditions are optimum. * But how a transition occurs does not determine a country’s potential to consolidation. * Contrary to the conventional wisdom, democracy does not automatically mature in progression. It is not time that strengthens democracy. The existing critical conditions at the time of the transition are not deterministic either. The extent of democratic consolidation depends on how political actors improve essential conditions gradually and progressively after a transition moves on.