Sit down with Iran to ensure there is no ‘October surprise’

Sir, The progressively unyielding logic of unintended consequences seems to be rearing its head again. As western sanctions against Iran continue to significantly undermine its economy, Tehran is more likely to conclude that it has little, if anything, to lose by closing off the Strait of Hormuz, a potential choke-point through which 35 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil – including Iran’s own plummeting oil exports – passes on its way to destinations in Asia, Europe and North America (“Corridor of power”, October 5).

Given the recent unrest in Iran because of the falling value of the rial, another “law” has become operative. This is the oldest maxim in the practice of politics and the oldest hypothesis in the study of politics: “When the natives are restless, find or invent an enemy and threaten to, or actually go to war.” The appeal of this process is that even a contrived common enemy tends to transform rebellious masses into supporters of the previously besieged government.

If Tehran were to yield to the compelling temptation to morph regime critics into allies by closing the strait, this would lead to a spike in oil and natural gas prices, severely undermining American and European economic recovery, and driving domestic and international conflict worldwide. This prospect of collective catastrophe should compel members of the international community (eg the P5+1) to sit down with the Iranians to stave off this lingering possibility, the effect of which could, from an Iranian point of view, be maximised by ensuring that it occurred in the near term as a variant of the “October surprise”; ie an external shock to US presidential politics.

Dennis J.D. Sandole, Professor of Conflict Resolution and International Relations, School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution, George Mason University, Arlington, VA, US