Ripening Negotiations and Settlement: The Role of Targeted Sanctions in Zimbabwe's Global Political Agreement

The study explores the role played by targeted sanctions in facilitating ripeness for negotiation towards the September 15th, 2008 Global Political Agreement (GPA) between the major political parties in Zimbabwe, namely ZANU-PF and MDC. The decade-old protracted conflict between ZANU PF and MDC was accompanied by violence, abuse of human rights and disrespect for the rule of law, mainly as ZANU PF made use of violence through the state security apparatus. This situation helped in accelerating the downward political and socio-economic spiral in Zimbabwe with dire consequences for civilians. Against this background, the international community, led by the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the European Union imposed targeted sanctions on the ZANU PF leadership to pressure them into upholding principles of democracy and rule of law and or facilitate regime change. More than 200 ZANU PF elites and their allies as well as scores of entities were slapped by these targeted sanctions. This study analyzes the impact of targeted sanctions on the process leading to the Global Political Agreement reached on September 15th 2008. Anchored in ripeness theory, a framework developed by William Zartman (1989), the research demonstrates how targeted sanctions facilitated a “hurting stalemate” for ZANU PF, creating compelling conditions for negotiations. The study analyzes such ripeness post-facto through an examination of anecdotal and empirical evidence. Through interviews with political elites, political analysts and civil society actors as well as secondary data review, the study concludes that targeted sanctions ripened conditions for negotiations towards the September 15th GPA. While the targeted sanctions had a frustrating, divisive and alienating effect on ZANU PF members, to the MDC, these restrictive measures had an emboldening effect which emerged from the internationalization of their struggle. This state of affairs ripened the moment for negotiations, ultimately spurning the GPA. The study also acknowledges how the targeted sanctions worked in unison with the mediation efforts of Thabo Mbeki and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in moving parties towards the GPA settlement.