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Dissertation Proposal Defense - Jeremy Tomlinson
The Process of Peace: Explaining Intra-Insurgent (Dis)Unity during Dialogue
Friday, April 28, 2017
10:00am - 12:00pm
Metropolitan Building, Room 5145
Committee:
Dr. Thomas Flores (Chair)
Dr. Terrence Lyons
Dr. John Dale.
Abstract:
Why do some rebel groups fragment under the strain of peace talks, while others are able to persevere, even consolidate in the face of it? Whether informally exploring the possibility of peace or formally negotiating the post-war political order, peace talks are moments of great opportunity and threat for rebel groups. On one hand, the opening of dialogue implies that war is a costly and painful enterprise for all and that nonviolent resolution is at least thinkable. On the other hand, cooperating with “the enemy” creates considerable tension within rebel organizations. As rebel leaders assess the context and conditions of peace talks, the cohort divides around various subjective positions. Factions become increasingly politically salient within the organization. The prevalence of factionalism, however, does not explain outright why groups divide or consolidate during peace talks; rather, it is how the emergent factional dynamics are mediated that matters. Specifically, an organization’s political culture, institutional arrangements, leadership and conflict resolution capacity work to mitigate or magnify the deleterious effects of intra-group competition and disagreement. Collectively, these factors determine why the analogously destabilizing force of dialogue has such diverse effects upon rebel unity across cases. Although striving to theorize the internal experience of rebel groups engaged in peace talks in general, this is a study about three armed groups in in Myanmar’s Southeast: the Karen National Union (KNU), Karenni National Progressive Party (KNPP) and the Democratic Karen Benevolent Army-5 (DKBA-5). To do so, it employs a Comparative Process Tracing methodology. Ultimately, this dissertation affords momentum to a budding discourse on the micro- and meso-dynamics of civil war and provisions for more effect support of peace processes in practice.