From Deterioration to Improvement in Western Thrace, Greece: A Political Systems Analysis of a Triadic Ethnic Conflict

In the Western Thrace region of Greece, there is a Muslim-Turkish Minority that has had a series of problems with the Greek government and with the local Greek Majority.

After a period of increasing tensions and deterioration in government-minority and minority-majority relations in Western Thrace (1974-1990)-- and when there were signs that the conflict was going to turn violent --the situation began to de-intensify gradually but substantially. The period of deterioration was then followed by a period of improvement (1990-2003/4) in the situation of the Minority, and in its relations with the Government and the Majority.

This dissertation examines the dynamics that led to the deterioration in the first period, the reasons behind the shift from deterioration to improvement, and the dynamics that made the improvement long-lasting, uninterrupted and significant. To understand these dynamics and the changes, I have used a modified version of the Political Systems Analysis model, developed by David Easton.

The data was collected from primary and secondary sources on the conflict from these two periods, and from interviews with individuals from the Minority, the Majority, and the Greek government.

This research shows that the Political System Analysis model can be very useful in explaining why and how the Government changed its policies, and how the situation in Thrace first deteriorated and then improved. The most important conclusion of the dissertation is that it was the change of the inputs from the actors and the addition of new actors that contributed to the Greek Government's pro-Minority shift in its policies. Another conclusion of this research is that in a democratic political system where the government is responsive to inputs from actors in its political environment, the freedom to peaceful protest is respected, the inputs from transnational and international actors (such as the European organizations) are important, ethnic conflicts, though a major problem, can be dealt with peacefully and constructively.

The dissertation ends with recommendations for further research and with suggestions as to what each of the key actors in the W. Thrace conflict should do to improve the situation in the region even further.